This summer, AI-driven insights suggest that football might finally be coming home, with England leading the pack for Euro 2024 glory.
Gareth Southgate’s squad is projected to have a nearly 25% chance of clinching the title, positioning them as favorites over the likes of two-time champions France and host nation Germany.
The forecast is derived from 10,000 tournament simulations conducted by Sportradar using its sophisticated AI algorithms.
While England narrowly missed out in the last Euros, falling in the final, Sportradar now estimates their chances of victory at 24%.
France, who dashed England’s hopes at the 2022 World Cup before finishing as runners-up, are given an 18.1% chance of winning.
Germany, despite recent early exits from major tournaments, are considered third favorites with a 15.2% probability. Portugal comes in fourth (10.5%), followed by Spain in fifth (9.3%).
Euro 2024 Outlook: England Leads, Scotland an Outsider
In stark contrast, Scotland, entering only their second major tournament since 1996, are seen as long shots for Euro 2024. Steve Clarke’s team has been assigned a mere 0.2% probability, equating to chances of one in 500.
This analysis comes just ahead of Euro 2024’s kickoff, scheduled from June 14 to July 14 in Germany.
Euro 2024 Odds: A Team-by-Team Breakdown
| TEAM | TOURNAMENT WINNER | REACH FINAL | REACH QF | REACH TOP 8 | REACH KNOCK STAGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENGLAND | 24.0% | 37.3% | 54.8% | 75.0% | 97.0% |
| FRANCE | 18.1% | 31.0% | 50.6% | 72.3% | 94.2% |
| GERMANY | 15.2% | 26.3% | 42.7% | 67.2% | 95.5% |
| PORTUGAL | 10.5% | 20.8% | 39.5% | 61.3% | 95.4% |
| SPAIN | 9.3% | 18.1% | 32.6% | 62.3% | 90.7% |
| ITALY | 5.3% | 11.9% | 25.1% | 53.4% | 85.7% |
| NETHERLANDS | 4.5% | 10.9% | 25.3% | 47.7% | 77.4% |
| BELGIUM | 4.4% | 10.4% | 23.5% | 49.9% | 90.7% |
| CROATIA | 1.8% | 5.4% | 13.5% | 36.1% | 70.8% |
| DENMARK | 1.4% | 4.5% | 12.2% | 29.1% | 70.8% |
| AUSTRIA | 0.9% | 3.1% | 9.9% | 25.6% | 55.1% |
| SWITZERLAND | 0.9% | 2.8% | 9.0% | 25.5% | 61.9% |
| TURKEY | 0.8% | 2.8% | 9.4% | 23.4% | 71.3% |
| UKRAINE | 0.8% | 2.9% | 9.5% | 26.7% | 72.4% |
| SERBIA | 0.5% | 2.2% | 7.2% | 21.1% | 59.4% |
| HUNGARY | 0.5% | 2.2% | 7.1% | 21.7% | 57.4% |
| POLAND | 0.3% | 1.1% | 4.7% | 15.5% | 39.0% |
| CZECHIA | 0.3% | 1.4% | 5.4% | 16.5% | 60.5% |
| SCOTLAND | 0.2% | 1.4% | 4.9% | 16.6% | 49.9% |
| ROMANIA | 0.2% | 1.2% | 4.9% | 18.0% | 60.2% |
| SLOVAKIA | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 11.7% | 46.0% |
| ALBANIA | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 7.2% | 24.4% |
| SLOVENIA | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 8.8% | 35.4% |
| GEORGIA | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 7.7% | 38.9% |
Source: Sportradar.
